The Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, Ruth Nankabirwa, has convened consultancy professionals to accelerate the feasibility study for the proposed 400MW Kiba Hydropower Project, as government moves to avert a looming electricity supply squeeze driven by surging demand.
The push to fast-track Kiba comes at a time when Uganda’s power system is operating with a shrinking reliability margin. Although installed generation capacity stands at about 2,094.1MW, this does not fully translate into dependable supply due to hydrological variability, plant outages, solar intermittency, transmission constraints and operational reserve requirements.
According to the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Limited, available firm capacity is estimated at approximately 1,450MW, only slightly above the peak system demand of 1,337.15MW recorded in February 2026, up from 1,310.71MW in January. This leaves a narrow margin that is increasingly under strain as new industrial loads, data centres and export commitments come on board.
Electricity demand growth is accelerating at a pace that is outstripping system expansion. In 2025, domestic demand rose by 19.86%, while overall system demand grew by 20.82%, signalling a rapidly tightening supply-demand balance.
Nankabirwa warned that failure to prepare new base-load generation capacity in time could expose the country to costly emergency measures. “If this deficit is not addressed early, the country will face difficult and expensive options such as load shedding, curtailment of exports and increased reliance on thermal generation,” she said.
The financial implications are substantial. Estimates indicate potential losses of about Shs 416.98 billion in unrealised revenue from unserved energy, Shs 115.09 billion from export curtailment, and up to Shs 1.034 trillion in additional thermal generation costs pressures that could ultimately feed into the Bulk Supply Tariff and raise end-user electricity prices.
It is against this backdrop that government has prioritised the Kiba project under the National Development Plan IV and the ruling party’s manifesto.
While short-term interventions such as solar projects, optimisation of existing plants and demand-side management may offer temporary relief, the minister emphasised that they are not a substitute for firm, dispatchable generation.
“The goal of this study is to ensure that, upon completion, Government is in position to proceed seamlessly to engineering, procurement, financing and construction,” Nankabirwa noted. “The study must therefore be practical, bankable and technically robust, while responding to the urgency of securing additional firm generation capacity.”
To ensure coordinated execution, the consultancy team will work closely with the Ministry’s Electrical Power Department. A multi-sectoral Project Technical Committee has also been established, bringing together key institutions including the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Ministry of Water and Environment, Ministry of Works and Transport, Uganda Electricity Generation Company Limited, UETCL, NEMA, UWA, NPA and ERA.
The committee will oversee the preparation and eventual development of Kiba alongside other major hydropower projects such as Oriang and Ayago, including their associated transmission infrastructure.
Strategically located along the Nile corridor, the Kiba Hydropower Project is planned as a run-of-river base-load facility situated within the wider Murchison Falls National Park ecosystem. This location elevates both its strategic importance in cascade development and the need for rigorous environmental and social safeguards.
Preliminary projections indicate that the plant could generate approximately 2,686.6GWh annually, with a design discharge of about 1,190 cubic metres per second and a gross head ranging between 36 and 42.4 metres.
The facility is expected to operate at a load factor of about 80.7%, generating power at 11kV before stepping it up to 400kV for evacuation.
As Uganda’s industrialisation drive gathers pace, the timely development of Kiba is increasingly viewed as critical to maintaining system reliability, supporting economic growth and strengthening the country’s position in regional power trade.